If we have learned anything by now, is that sanctions do not work, especially in places where there is decent education:
China is building now very thin chips, on the range of 7 nano-meters and even lower.
North Korea has not only aromic bombs, but also the ability to deliver them to the US.
Iran has overcome the sanctions and now its arsenal of balistic and cruise missiles of proven high accuracy sends shivers to the Israeli and US establisments.
As for the Russia and Russians, there is absolutely nothing the US can do to curtail them.
All the while the oil & gas transactions move away from the US dollars. Already 20% is done in other currencies...
It seems sanctions against Arctic LNG 2 are enforced more thoroughly than sanctions against Russian oil (ie the $60 “cap”). Why is that?
One reason could be that it’s easier to monitor a few LNG carrier shipyards than a fleet of aging oil tankers, but I’m not sure that fully explains the difference.
Good question. I think it is less about enforcement than effectiveness. LNG is far less fungible than oil, so sanctions targeting the reloading facilities are more effective. Being less easy to trade, redirect and exchange, you can target the infrastructure that enables Russian LNG to access markets - especially Arctic shipments, which need specialist (scarce) vessels. There are fewer workarounds. Also the liquefaction technology is more complex and not as widely available as that neded for drilling and transporting oil, although we now know that Russia has reshored much of that capability.
If we have learned anything by now, is that sanctions do not work, especially in places where there is decent education:
China is building now very thin chips, on the range of 7 nano-meters and even lower.
North Korea has not only aromic bombs, but also the ability to deliver them to the US.
Iran has overcome the sanctions and now its arsenal of balistic and cruise missiles of proven high accuracy sends shivers to the Israeli and US establisments.
As for the Russia and Russians, there is absolutely nothing the US can do to curtail them.
All the while the oil & gas transactions move away from the US dollars. Already 20% is done in other currencies...
Another brilliant post Seb!
Great post Seb! well done
Thanks Arjun, that means a lot!
It seems sanctions against Arctic LNG 2 are enforced more thoroughly than sanctions against Russian oil (ie the $60 “cap”). Why is that?
One reason could be that it’s easier to monitor a few LNG carrier shipyards than a fleet of aging oil tankers, but I’m not sure that fully explains the difference.
Good question. I think it is less about enforcement than effectiveness. LNG is far less fungible than oil, so sanctions targeting the reloading facilities are more effective. Being less easy to trade, redirect and exchange, you can target the infrastructure that enables Russian LNG to access markets - especially Arctic shipments, which need specialist (scarce) vessels. There are fewer workarounds. Also the liquefaction technology is more complex and not as widely available as that neded for drilling and transporting oil, although we now know that Russia has reshored much of that capability.
Never underestimate the resourcefulness of the Russians.
confirm that as russian LNG process technologist.
Absolutely. Few believed they would come this far...