Chart Deck
Atlantic LNG is heading east. EU storage refill is falling behind. And TTF keeps stalling below €50/MWh. This week’s Chart Deck explains why this apparent equilibrium is as soft as melting butter.
The Energy Flux Podcast
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
Chart Deck
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
HOT TAKE: Dealmaking frenzy and reality denial reign supreme in Milan
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Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
Trump’s hollow ‘victory’ is Iran’s greatest triumph — and a rupture with the old energy order
Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention
Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.
🚨 EMERGENCY POD 🎧 Deciphering Trump's latest Iran TACO, and why the future of Middle East oil and LNG exports hinges on regime change in Tehran
