Hot takes
The US says the war is over and Hormuz is open. Energy markets are desperate to agree. Here’s what we know, what we don’t, and why the next two months will be more dangerous than headlines suggest.
Chart Deck
Credulous energy markets have stopped pricing Iran, and started pricing Trump’s presidential word salads instead. This cannot end well.
Chart Deck
The hard risk budget cap keeping TTF below €50 has lifted. What remains is softer, stranger and harder to trade: a market with room to rally, but no-one willing to push through.
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.
How Europe’s response to the Hormuz crisis is blunting the very tools it needs to escape import dependency
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But intervention is unnecessary, says Commission’s Gas Market Task Force
The EU gas market is pricing two mutually exclusive Hormuz states at once. Energy Flux’s new model quantifies the disconnect between price-implied LNG flows and physical reality in the contested Strait. Either missing cargoes return, or TTF moves higher.
Atlantic LNG is heading east. EU storage refill is falling behind. And TTF keeps stalling below €50/MWh. This week’s Chart Deck explains why this apparent equilibrium is as soft as melting butter.
🎧 The looming macroeconomic shock, ballooning winter risk for EU gas markets, demand destruction & post-Hormuz narrative whipsaw
The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.
Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup
The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying
Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave
For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.
🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.
Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.
Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.
