The slow grind higher

The gas market is no longer pricing a clean Hormuz reopening. It is pricing something messier: conditional transit, shifting LNG flows, nervous funds, and a shortfall in European gas storage injections.

The Hidden Ceiling

Value-at-Risk: Why TTF can’t break €50/MWh despite investment funds holding a record net long position in an unparalleled bullish setup

Crossing the Hormuz chasm

The fragile bridge back to molecular normality is fraying

The post-Hormuz cliff edge

Prolonged closure jacks up near-term volatility, and sets the stage for an abrupt reversal: macroeconomic shock + demand destruction + new LNG supply wave

The shock absorber cracks

For 55 days, the war-shocked global LNG market has been balanced by Asian state buyers going without. One just said, enough is enough.

Groundhog Strait

🎧 US-Iran ceasefire extended, Hormuz still closed to LNG. Could the Strait dominate the US midterms? We created three new LNG supply scenarios to find out.

A market at war with itself

Does the mispricing thesis still hold water? Either the data is wrong, or the market is.

Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model

Quick re-opening, or prolonged disruption? Model how Middle East diplomacy and conflict impact fast-changing global LNG supply balances, in our improved scenario engine.

War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning

War shut in one of the world’s most critical export arteries. The long-promised supply wave is finally arriving. Which force wins, when, and by how much? Our new scenario data model brings clarity to the confusion.

America’s Suez moment

Trump’s hollow ‘victory’ is Iran’s greatest triumph — and a rupture with the old energy order

Easter Escalation

Iran war spirals, Hormuz stays shut to LNG, and gas markets still aren’t paying attention

Weaponising the fog of war

Markets can’t price what they can’t see. And right now, nobody can see anything.