10 Comments

Thanks for another brilliant article Seb!

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Appreciated that :)

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Magnificent and very dense article, Seb.

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Thank you!

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Very good article....I love Nat gas...but that does not mean I see a clear way to make money off it with out considerable risk of lost sleep. I will stay with the shippers for now and take a wait and see attitude...hoping the coming solar minimum in 2025 "cools" things off which will be a big surprise for the ESG cult. Thanks for the great analysis.

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Thanks.. as I explained in another comment, the LNG vessel owners are probably a safer bet from an investor POV.

BTW you got me googling 'solar minimum'. Can't see any coverage about what this means for PV or other renewables. Have you?

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Maunder minimum....is a good place to start. We are about to move into a new solar cycle. The one we are in has increased by 12 days the growing season in the Midwest....how else could you grow 80 bushel soybeans in Minnesota. There are a number of good Youtubes on this and it is well documented through carbon and tree ring analysis.

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Great article, Seb. There's plenty to think about in there for equity investors with stakes in E&Ps, as well as traders. One part I didn't fully understand was the analyst's comment that only the shipping/bunkering companies will profit in the future from LNG. Is that because bunkerers charge a fixed rate for letting their ships and are therefore immune to fluctuations in commodity prices?

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Thanks William. Freight rates are quite volatile but with so much new supply coming into the market there will be robust demand for LNG vessels. In a situation of oversupply day rates spike as vessels are used as floating storage. But they can also rise when there’s a surge in demand for the commodity. So they win when the LNG market is weak, and when it’s tight.

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In the mean time the TTF dropped this morning (dec 11) another 5%....

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