18 Comments
тна Return to thread

This is a great explainer for those who are new to energy markets, but a bit old hat to more veteran observers/participants. You've got great stuff here, and you explain well. Maybe you could delve more into prognostication, and maybe talk about the factors that could drive the different future scenarios?

Expand full comment

Thanks, this is valuable feedback. There's not much open-source modelling on future gas demand - IEA, EIA, Shell etc. forecasts are all closed models so not much to go on other than their outputs. Can you suggest a framework or methodology to analyse different scenarios and the factors driving them?

Expand full comment

If only to summarize the factors that IEA/BP, etc talk about that are the driving factors in their future forecasts, even if you can't quantify it. One of the things I've been saying to friend recently is that one's forecast for EVs is one's forecast for the future of oil demand - maybe pull on those kinds of threads?

Expand full comment