Gas attack: Inside Russia’s new strategy to break Ukraine
DEEP DIVE: Amidst the turmoil of ceasefire talks, Ukraine faces a grim supply picture for next winter – and an even harsher economic reality that poses existential risks to the government in Kyiv
A gas metering station ablaze and a pipeline sneak attack. A 30-day energy infrastructure ceasefire violated within the hour only to be revamped in Russia’s favour a week later. Deep distrust, recriminations and ongoing clashes are the soundtrack to putative Ukraine ‘peace talks’.
The kind of headlines that feel scripted for a geopolitical blockbuster have become a daily occurrence in Ukraine over the past few weeks.
As a result, the markets are at fever pitch trying to price in the prospects of a lasting peace settlement and anticipate the next curveball development.
Unanswerable questions abound: Will there ever be a resumption — or definitive preclusion — of gas pipeline flows through Ukraine? Start-up of Nord Stream 2? Or even the destruction of TurkStream?
Against a background of incendiary headlines lies one that most hurts Ukraine and its negotiating power: Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian natural gas production.
Over the past few months Moscow has taken out approximately 40% of Ukrainian production through a fierce campaign of drone and missile strikes.
The strikes have upset a delicate domestic gas balance in the war-torn country, forcing it to become more dependent on imports.
Russian forces had largely steered clear of targeting natural gas assets up until this year. So why now? And how could the relentless bombardment of Ukraine’s gas production capability shape the contours of a peace settlement that that US Trump administration is desperately trying to forge?
If you need to understand the Kremlin’s many motives for destroying Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, the extent of the damage, and its long-term implications for European geopolitics and energy markets — this post is for you.
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