no mention of germany's foolishness in shutting down cost-effective, no emission nuclear in favor of burning lignite? more nuclear would reduce the need for energy imports, not to mention the environmental benefit of shutting in lignite.
Indeed. Michael Liebreich called it an environmental crime, and I am inclined to agree.
That said, Germany uses gas primarily in heat and industry, not power, so the nuke shutdown only impacted something in the region of 4% of Germany gas consumption (I think - need to double check). Lignite is the big beneficiary from Germany ending nukes, which is why this was such a bad move (unless you are one of the 32,000 people whose job depends on brown coal mining).
the numbers shown assume a "general" basket of consumers, where the cut in demand of 17% was horizontal across the sectors/society. in fact, it was the whole industrial (mostly german) sector that shutdown to 100%. or thereabouts..... saying that additional efficiencies are needed is just a simple button-push solution. in reality, next cuts have to be done by final consumers (old retired lady, no more heaters next winter, for ukraine and the climate and whatnot), or by destroying another whole sector. hmmm, force closing half of farm businesses in the second biggest food exporter country comes to mind.... we all need to thank dutch farmers to help us save on the gas imports..... :D
TTF is an important benchmark, but many European gas markets are not linked to TTF and many gas consumers do not pay TTF-linked prices even on TTF market. Total gas value calculations based on “yearly average” TTF multiplied by total annual consumption are not fully correct because they do not take in account the fact that TTF was sky-high during May-October when physical gas consumption was minimal and traders & utilities injected the gas to underground storages with proper hedging of coming winter months, while maximum physical consumption during November-April (what final users paid for) was at much lower prices.
"Benchmark TTF is a useful proxy for European wholesale gas but prices do vary significantly across the continent, particularly in semi-isolated markets such as the Iberian peninsula. A more accurate estimate of the value of volumetric consumption would require a more robust methodology and more granular data that correlates price movements with consumption over shorter time intervals. The extent and pace of wholesale price pass-through to households, businesses and industrial consumers would also need to be taken into consideration."
A 100% accurate figure of European gas consumption is almost impossible to calculate. This is a high-level assessment intended to provide food for thought. Thanks for reading and commenting.
I should add, the European Commission calculates the EU-only import bill for gas from outside the bloc – which includes imports from gas exporting non-members Norway, the UK, Turkey etc. – totalled €316 billion in 2022. My estimate of 2022 pan-Europe gas imports is $433 billion. The UK and Turkey are fairly big LNG importers so it seems like it is in the right ballpark.
no mention of germany's foolishness in shutting down cost-effective, no emission nuclear in favor of burning lignite? more nuclear would reduce the need for energy imports, not to mention the environmental benefit of shutting in lignite.
Indeed. Michael Liebreich called it an environmental crime, and I am inclined to agree.
That said, Germany uses gas primarily in heat and industry, not power, so the nuke shutdown only impacted something in the region of 4% of Germany gas consumption (I think - need to double check). Lignite is the big beneficiary from Germany ending nukes, which is why this was such a bad move (unless you are one of the 32,000 people whose job depends on brown coal mining).
the numbers shown assume a "general" basket of consumers, where the cut in demand of 17% was horizontal across the sectors/society. in fact, it was the whole industrial (mostly german) sector that shutdown to 100%. or thereabouts..... saying that additional efficiencies are needed is just a simple button-push solution. in reality, next cuts have to be done by final consumers (old retired lady, no more heaters next winter, for ukraine and the climate and whatnot), or by destroying another whole sector. hmmm, force closing half of farm businesses in the second biggest food exporter country comes to mind.... we all need to thank dutch farmers to help us save on the gas imports..... :D
Super oversimplified review.
TTF is an important benchmark, but many European gas markets are not linked to TTF and many gas consumers do not pay TTF-linked prices even on TTF market. Total gas value calculations based on “yearly average” TTF multiplied by total annual consumption are not fully correct because they do not take in account the fact that TTF was sky-high during May-October when physical gas consumption was minimal and traders & utilities injected the gas to underground storages with proper hedging of coming winter months, while maximum physical consumption during November-April (what final users paid for) was at much lower prices.
I agree, which is why footnote 2 states:
"Benchmark TTF is a useful proxy for European wholesale gas but prices do vary significantly across the continent, particularly in semi-isolated markets such as the Iberian peninsula. A more accurate estimate of the value of volumetric consumption would require a more robust methodology and more granular data that correlates price movements with consumption over shorter time intervals. The extent and pace of wholesale price pass-through to households, businesses and industrial consumers would also need to be taken into consideration."
A 100% accurate figure of European gas consumption is almost impossible to calculate. This is a high-level assessment intended to provide food for thought. Thanks for reading and commenting.
I should add, the European Commission calculates the EU-only import bill for gas from outside the bloc – which includes imports from gas exporting non-members Norway, the UK, Turkey etc. – totalled €316 billion in 2022. My estimate of 2022 pan-Europe gas imports is $433 billion. The UK and Turkey are fairly big LNG importers so it seems like it is in the right ballpark.