Seven lessons from a wild year in EU energy markets
2024 IN REVIEW: Brace for the next plot twist in the ‘EU gas crisis’ story
For Europe’s gas markets, 2024 was less about the molecules in the pipeline and more about the emotions on the trading floor — fear, greed, and a stubborn belief in worst-case scenarios.
Supply and demand played second fiddle in a geopolitical thriller, where a barrage of head-spinning headlines continually rewrote the plot. An information vacuum proved fertile ground for rumour and speculation, leaving markets struggling to price risk appropriately.
European energy consumers might have hoped for calm after 2022’s crisis and 2023’s recalibration, but 2024 brought a fresh lesson: perception is reality. The energy crisis won’t end until a critical mass of hedge funds stop believing in it.
That pivotal moment is approaching, but the gravity-defying bull run of 2024 demonstrated the perils of calling the market top prematurely. The next (final?) chapter in the ‘EU gas crisis’ story is about to be written.
This special end-of-year post relays the most pertinent takeaways from a brutally unpredictable 2024, and casts a forward eye to the major factors likely to shape market events over the coming 12 months.
Lesson #1: Vibes beat facts
Lesson #2: Political expediency trumps ‘red lines’
Lesson #3: Money moves markets
Lesson #4: Correction is the path back to ‘normality’
Lesson #5: Seasonality is dead, long live ‘false seasonality’
Lesson #6: Europe’s LNG dependence is politically unsustainable
Lesson #7: The global gas story can turn on a dime
Bonus lesson: ? 😉
I have learned a huge amount this year about how markets work, and how to articulate sophisticated insights in a pithy, accessible way. It’s been a joy to share that journey of discovery in Energy Flux, and subscriber response has been overwhelmingly positive throughout 2024.
This article epitomises the sort of high-impact data-rich analysis I intend to develop further in 2025 and beyond. Subscribe now for full access and support independent, unbiased Europe-focussed market analysis at a critical moment in energy history.
Article stats: 2,400 words, 11-min reading time, 13 charts and graphs